Drill room
Market sizing drill
Write the equation before the number.
The room is a clock, a prompt, and a score. The method below is what Ned grades. Free accounts get a daily window.
How to structure it
- Define the market. Units, $ revenue, or profit. Say which.
- Write the equation. Top-down from population, or bottom-up from a store. Pick the path with the cleanest anchors.
- Three to five assumptions. Each one you can defend in a sentence.
- Multiply, then sanity-check. One or two significant figures. Does a known company fit inside the number?
Households about 30 million, replacement every 10 years is 3 million mattresses a year. Mix 70% at €400 and 30% at €900 is €550 average. Revenue about €1.65 billion. IKEA plus specialists can share that. Order of magnitude holds.
Usual miss. Mixing households with people, or quoting eight digits. Interviewers grade the equation and the sanity check.