Worked examples

Market sizing questions

Ten worked estimates and ten practice prompts. Equation before the number. Always.

Punch a path in the market size calculator, then sit the timed drill.

Worked

Mattresses in France

Households × replacement rate × blended price

30m households, replace every 10 years, €550 blended ASP.

~€1.65bn

US coffee shop visits / day

Adults × weekly visit rate / 7

260m adults, ~1.5 visits/week for the visiting set, sanity against Starbucks US tickets.

~50–70m visits

London Uber-like trips / day

Population × trip propensity × private-hire share

9m people, ~0.3 motorized trips involving hired cars for a subset.

~1–1.5m

India smartphone replacements / year

Installed base / life

500m+ smartphones, 3–4 year life, plus first-time buyers.

~120–150m

Global large commercial aircraft deliveries

Known OEM rates

Anchor on Airbus + Boeing public guidance, not GDP.

~1,000–1,400/year

NYC yellow taxi + rideshare airport trips

Airport pax × share using hired cars

JFK+LGA+EWR pax, 20–40% hired car depending on airport.

Tens of millions / year

US household laundry detergent $

Households × buys/year × price

130m households, 6–8 bottles, $6–8.

~$4–6bn

EU public EV chargers needed

EV stock × public kWh share / utilization / kW

State utilization or the number is meaningless.

Order-of-magnitude millions of ports by 2030 in aggressive cases

Consulting case books printed / year (joke-check)

MBA class × cases × pages, then reject

If you cannot sanity-check, pick another path.

Use a real proxy instead

UK pints of beer / year

Adults × drinking rate × on vs off trade

Pub vs supermarket is the mix question.

Billions of pints; on-trade is the swing

Practice prompts

Golf balls in flight in the US on a Saturday morning
School buses in Germany
Revenue of umbrellas in London in a rainy year
Data-center MW added in Texas this decade
Wedding spend in Italy
Number of vending machines in Japan
US dog food $ market
Daily espresso shots in Milan
Ikea stores that would saturate France
Containers through Rotterdam vs Antwerp

Open the calculator Timed market-sizing drill