Mattresses in France
Households × replacement rate × blended price
30m households, replace every 10 years, €550 blended ASP.
~€1.65bn
Worked examples
Market sizing questions
Ten worked estimates and ten practice prompts. Equation before the number. Always.
Punch a path in the market size calculator, then sit the timed drill.
Worked
US coffee shop visits / day
Adults × weekly visit rate / 7
260m adults, ~1.5 visits/week for the visiting set, sanity against Starbucks US tickets.
~50–70m visits
London Uber-like trips / day
Population × trip propensity × private-hire share
9m people, ~0.3 motorized trips involving hired cars for a subset.
~1–1.5m
India smartphone replacements / year
Installed base / life
500m+ smartphones, 3–4 year life, plus first-time buyers.
~120–150m
Global large commercial aircraft deliveries
Known OEM rates
Anchor on Airbus + Boeing public guidance, not GDP.
~1,000–1,400/year
NYC yellow taxi + rideshare airport trips
Airport pax × share using hired cars
JFK+LGA+EWR pax, 20–40% hired car depending on airport.
Tens of millions / year
US household laundry detergent $
Households × buys/year × price
130m households, 6–8 bottles, $6–8.
~$4–6bn
EU public EV chargers needed
EV stock × public kWh share / utilization / kW
State utilization or the number is meaningless.
Order-of-magnitude millions of ports by 2030 in aggressive cases
Consulting case books printed / year (joke-check)
MBA class × cases × pages, then reject
If you cannot sanity-check, pick another path.
Use a real proxy instead
UK pints of beer / year
Adults × drinking rate × on vs off trade
Pub vs supermarket is the mix question.
Billions of pints; on-trade is the swing
Practice prompts
- Golf balls in flight in the US on a Saturday morning
- School buses in Germany
- Revenue of umbrellas in London in a rainy year
- Data-center MW added in Texas this decade
- Wedding spend in Italy
- Number of vending machines in Japan
- US dog food $ market
- Daily espresso shots in Milan
- Ikea stores that would saturate France
- Containers through Rotterdam vs Antwerp